A clear decline in educational performance among secondary school pupils has sent shockwaves around the globe this week.
A quarter of a century after the first OECD Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) report was published, academic scores across 91 of the world’s countries and regions are visibly on the wane.
PISA scores: not so much leaning as plummeting
According to the latest report, released on Tuesday 8 September, one in five 15-year-olds globally are now classified as low performers in science, maths and/or reading.
While the scores for science are more promising, student performance in reading and mathematics has hit the lowest level recorded. Average reading scores have fallen by 28 points over the last decade, equivalent to a year and a half of learning. Maths scores, for their part, have dropped by 22 points – just over a year of learning.
Bearing in mind that education is not an EU competence and rests entirely with member states, those member states are faring no better than the rest of the world, with a pretty mediocre performance all round.
In Germany, around a third of 15-year-olds are now failing to meet the minimum standard in these three educational areas, says AMS.
In a debate in the German Bundestag on Wednesday, Chancellor Merz described the results as “sobering”.
Friedrich Merz, Chancellor of Germany (in German):
“The results we see there are sobering. And we know that we need another major effort, especially in education policy. I want to explicitly offer the German federal states the opportunity to join forces once again in a major effort to improve the state of education in Germany. But one thing is also crucial: education cannot simply be outsourced to the state. Families and parents also play a part and have a responsibility. If we recognise this together, then we can solve the problem.”
Commentators in Portugal, where PISA scores have dropped back to levels similar to those observed about 20 years ago, are also concerned, and there is much debate on the whys and wherefores.
According to João Marôco, a university professor, education researcher and expert in the field of education, the problem stems from a change in national education policy in 2016.
João Marôco, University Professor and Education Researcher (in Portuguese):
“Between 2000 and 2015, regardless of whether the government was socialist or social democratic, there was, in fact, a trend toward more demanding curricula with clear goals and objectives, well-structured curricula, and accountability – not only from students but also from schools – along with a set of educational policies that sought to empower families. Starting in 2016, there was a complete reversal of previous policies. We began to have vague and poorly structured curricula, because policymakers in 2016 believed that the national curriculum was too dense and too heavy and that students could not learn any more.”
While the decline in student skills is evident across most of the countries analysed in the PISA report, one of the few exceptions is the United Kingdom, where national learning outcomes have been maintained or improved – primarily thanks to the exceptional performance of England, which has dragged up the UK’s overall rating.
Miguel Herdade is a Portuguese expert on educational inequality with significant experience of the UK’s school system. Speaking to Renascença, he claims that England, in particular, made a serious investment in academic recovery after the COVID pandemic, in contrast to what happened in Portugal.
Miguel Herdade, Expert on Educational Inequality (in Portuguese):
“These results are for children who were around 10 years old when the pandemic struck. We didn’t pay much attention to these children at the time; we kept schools closed for a long time and then didn’t do enough to help them catch up. In England, on the other hand, significant investment was made in helping these children catch up during the pandemic, and schools maintained very high academic standards, prioritising knowledge over skills. The results are plain to see. England has one of the best education systems in the world, while Portugal has regressed significantly – which is a shame because we had made great progress up until 2015, when Portugal established itself as having a very good education system on a global level.”
But Herdade seems to be broadly in agreement with Marôco that a change in educational policy post-2015 is mostly to blame for the recent decline in Portugal.
Miguel Herdade, Expert on Educational Inequality (in Portuguese):
“There are two possible models for designing an education system. One is based on knowledge and high standards – which is what we had until 2015 and what England has now. The other is based on skills, and thus on softer competencies and a more lenient approach. That second model has not worked. This is very clear in the case of Portugal. It’s also very clear in [the UK], when we compare England with Wales, the latter of which followed a path similar to Portugal’s and saw its situation worsen.”
It may be interesting to note that education is a fully devolved power in the United Kingdom. The UK government’s Department for Education oversees education in England, while education policy in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are managed by the respective national legislatures. And Wales is the only UK nation with PISA scores for reading, maths and science that fall below the global OECD averages.
For Estonia, meanwhile, the latest PISA results are gratifying. The country came out in the top ten overall, and takes pole position among EU member states. Education minister Kristina Kallas talks to Kuku Raadio.
Kristina Kallas, Minister of Education of Estonia (in Estonian):
“Our results in the natural sciences are consistently top-class. Yes, our reading skills have declined. This is a cause for concern, and there are global trends behind it. But it is precisely this scientific thinking and knowledge of science that is at a very high level. There has been virtually no decline here.”
This said, Estonia was clearly starting from a high baseline because, as Kallas mentions, its maths and reading scores have still declined since 2022. She insists action needs to be taken.
Kristina Kallas, Minister of Education of Estonia (in Estonian):
“In this age of AI, I believe that the ability to understand texts, delve into them and develop one’s thinking through reading needs to be pushed even further than in previous periods. I think we need to sit down with teachers and university researchers in education to assess whether we should be making changes to our teaching methods and bringing more text back into the way we teach.”
Castilla y León – a top-performing region in Spain – is also happy, as regional minister of education María Pardo explains in a clip shared by esRadio.
María Pardo, Minister of Education for Castilla y León (in Spanish):
“Once again, Castilla y León has ranked among the best education systems in Spain. […] We remain on the national podium in all three assessed competencies.”
Yet while Pardo celebrates her region’s successes, she sounds a note of caution.
María Pardo, Minister of Education for Castilla y León (in Spanish):
“The fact that, in both mathematics and reading, 23 of the 25 top-performing countries have seen their scores decline should give us pause for thought. This is a worrying trend that should make us reflect on the educational model being implemented globally.”
AfD victory reverberates far beyond state borders
Another topic featuring heavily around our network this week is, unsurprisingly, the outcome of Sunday’s election in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt – an election that resulted in the highest vote share for the far right in Germany since 1945, with almost 44 per cent of voters’ crosses going in the AfD’s box on the ballot paper.
Saxony-Anhalt is home to just 2.5 per cent of the German population, and it is less prosperous than the national average. It is the state with the highest average age in Germany, and a relatively low proportion of people from a migrant background.
BNR seeks the views of Bulgaria’s deputy prime minister Ivo Hristov, a member of the newly formed left-wing populist and nationalist party Progressive Bulgaria. He does not seem unduly alarmed by the events unfolding in Germany.
Ivo Hristov, Deputy Prime Minister of Bulgaria (in Bulgarian):
“They are a harbinger of a rising wave of discontent against the status quo across Europe. This is noticeable in the sociological surveys in France – there were also very violent demonstrations against emigration – as well as in Britain. This is a revolt against militarisation and the continuation of bloodshed in Ukraine, against the immigration policy that creates security problems and undermines the cultural foundations of Europe. […] Europeans want to preserve their way of life, their customs and orders, and societies are beginning to realise that tolerance without borders is a path to the collapse of the Union itself and their societies.”
In Italy, says Radio 24, there were a vast array of reactions to the election result within the government itself: premier Giorgia Meloni stayed silent, foreign minister Antonio Tajani described it as “terrible news”, and deputy PM Matteo Salvini – speaking here – rejoiced.
Matteo Salvini, Deputy Prime Minister of Italy (in Italian):
“In a democracy, the people of Saxony-Anhalt have voted and called for change – something that is both legitimate and proper in a democratic system. What concerns me is that when elections take place, certain factions on the left – and not only on the left – speak of terror, anguish, fear, Nazism and Fascism if the results do not match their expectations. The German people have voted, and elections are never a problem.”
Less enamoured with the landmark AfD victory, Lithuanian EPP member Paulius Saudargas says Germany’s mainstream parties need to address the unresolved problems that are fuelling support for the far right.
Paulius Saudargas, Member of the European Parliament – EPP, Lithuania (in Lithuanian):
“Mainstream parties, from the centre-right to the centre-left, need to think seriously about what course of action to take. They need to take away the issues that these radical populists exploit. Those issues are unresolved problems. The most prominent ones are migration and a range of social problems. In Saxony-Anhalt, there are many such problems, including in education, healthcare and other areas. But there is another issue […] and that is their pro-Russian stance. I believe this can be weakened over the coming years, and Europe is making enormous efforts to achieve that.”
What does he mean by that, exactly? Well, he argues that the party’s pro-Russian message could lose some of its appeal as Europe reduces its dependence on Russian energy.
Paulius Saudargas, Member of the European Parliament – EPP, Lithuania (in Lithuanian):
“Why do they seek this friendship with Russia? Because of natural resources and projects such as Nord Stream, which Germany has long relied on. Many people saw the benefits – namely cheaper energy and a happy industrial sector. They are still playing that card, but it is gradually losing its value, and through our efforts we can take that card away from them.”
Ronald Meinardus, for his part, is a senior research fellow at Athens-based think tank ELIAMEP. He specialises in German politics, Greek-German relations and voter behaviour, and he spoke to our colleagues at Skai on Monday.
He started by pointing out that the AfD victory represents the collapse of a political taboo in Germany – that idea of a political ‘firewall’, an unwritten agreement between mainstream parties to keep the far right out of government.
But he cautions that calls from certain quarters to ban the party are misguided.
Ronald Meinardus, Senior Research Fellow at ELIAMEP (in Greek):
“Once a party reaches 30 or 40 per cent, it becomes extremely difficult to ban. Could something have been done earlier? History will be the judge of that. There are commentators saying precisely this: that this should have happened 10 or 15 years ago, but it’s now too late. When a party is getting 40 or 45 per cent of the vote, you cannot simply ban it. There would be unrest; there would be uprisings in the streets.”
Meinardus reminds us that we are still only talking about a regional election here. And while Germany’s 16 federal states do have considerable authority over local and regional matters, including culture and education, they do not have authority over most of the areas in which the AfD holds a radical position.
Ronald Meinardus, Senior Research Fellow at ELIAMEP (in Greek):
“A state premier does not have the power to carry out mass deportations, take Germany out of the euro or implement measures of that kind.”
This said, he adds, we are observing a kind of ‘normalisation’ of this previously fringe party.
Ronald Meinardus, Senior Research Fellow at ELIAMEP (in Greek):
“We are seeing a normalisation, if we can call it that, regarding this party; and a normalisation within the public debate as well – that is, a normalisation of political terminology that, until recently, would have been seen as completely unacceptable because of its racist undertones. That is one thing. On the other hand, I want to emphasise that Germany today is not the Weimar Republic. We have a strong constitution and strong courts. As a liberal democrat, I am optimistic that the rule of law will not allow this system to be dismantled by the far right. And there is also a civil society that is putting up a fight.”
